Mister Pterodactyl: It's gonna be soon

Monday, February 07, 2005

It's gonna be soon
A great piece from the Times of Britain:
“In interviews for this article over many months, western policymakers, Chinese experts, North Korean exiles and human rights activists built up a picture of a tightly knit clan leadership in Pyongyang that is on the verge of collapse.
Some of those interviewed believe the ‘Dear Leader’, Kim Jong-il, has already lost his personal authority to a clique of generals and party cadres. Without any public announcement, governments from Tokyo to Washington are preparing for a change of regime.”
The article points out a number of signs that could indicate accelerating decline. An assassination attempt on one of Kim’s sons, purges and disappearances (and increased defections) among the NK elites, recently-released photos of Kim that appear to have been taken at least two years ago, NK agents in Beijing and Ulan Bator selling assets to raise cash.

An interview with “conservative US scholar” Michael Horowitz:
“When it finds North Korean generals who can be trusted to close concentration camps and scrap Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programs, [Horowitz] said, Washington could send a message to them, saying that if they ‘do something’ it will receive support from the United States. He said he is sure that China has already selected a North Korean general to succeed current leader Kim Jong-il as the political costs of Kim's remaining in power grows increasingly. Beijing has reviewed a scenario in which the general would seize control, declare a national crisis and request China to send 200,000 troops to complete the coup d'etat, he said.”

And from VOA:
“In recent months, reports from North Korea say his portraits have been taken down in a number of public places. Last month, a videotape allegedly filmed in North Korea showed a portrait of Mr. Kim being defaced.
Douglas Shin is a Christian activist who says he has extensive contacts in North Korea. He goes so far as to say he thinks Kim Jong Il has already been sidelined.
‘I think right now North Korea is basically run by one or more generals who are using Kim Jong Il as a façade,’ said Douglas Shin. ‘They are hiding behind Kim Jong Il whenever necessary.’
Mr. Shin says official North Korean announcements increasingly emphasize the role of party and the military leaders surrounding Kim Jong Il, rather than Mr. Kim personally. That, he says, may hint at a broader distribution of power in the future.
Because the Kim personality cult has been used to legitimize the regime for decades, many North Korea experts say the government is unlikely to survive long in the event of Kim Jong Il's death. The current leader's sons are considered too distant from their grandfather's heroic image to command public support and there appears to be no mechanism for selecting a leader outside the family. That could mean a power struggle that leaves the government unable to function effectively.”

All rumor and speculation, sure, but rumor and speculation we weren’t getting last year.

- posted by Dactyl @ 1:46 PM

Comments:

The generals thought that Kim Jong Il was on the verge of provoking that Stupid CoWboy into forcing free elections and that the 'Senators from Massachussetts' wouldn't be able to persuade the idiot American public out of it with their superior rhetoric.

# posted by

Steve Burri : 5:38 PM

Since, by default, I am the voice of Superior rhetoric, I say it's time for the bastard to go.

Sadly, that means that a Beijing-selected ruler will take his place.

The good thing about that is that it will be an improvement for the people of North Korea.

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